LexisNexis GLP Index: immigration law

Will demand for immigration law expertise grow, decline or simply stay the same in 2023?

The LexisNexis GLP Index pulls the latest datapoints to provide some powerful predictions on the future of immigration law.

After being hard hit by the pandemic, immigration law is now in growth mode.

That's according to the latest GLP Index, which pulls from hundreds of datapoints to predict demand for legal expertise across multiple practice areas.

The years leading up to the pandemic were a tough few for the immigration legal sector - and the lockdown only escalated these troubles. When COVID-19 struck, the number of visa applications plummeted, and getting applications granted became a drawn-out process as the Home Office underwent major changes to continue functioning.

However, immigration law now seems to be on the up-and-up. As the GLP Index found, demand for immigration law dropped -30% in 2020, then almost doubled in growth the following year at +64%. This growth is still continuing, rising 8% in 2022 and is predicted to grow by 8% in 2023.

While the index pulls into account a wide range of datapoints, this growth can be attributed to an increase in work, student and family visas alongside settlement and citizenship applications.

Scroll down for in-depth research and analysis on the key trends driving change across immigration law.

Immigration law is predicted to generate 8% more work in 2023 than in 2022

The total number of work visas granted rose to 239,193 in 2021 - more than double that of 2020's 114,528 and considerably higher than in previous years.

In the year ending in June 2022, there were 331,233 work-related visas granted - a 72% increase compared with 2019.

‘Worker’ visas make up two-thirds (67%) of all work-related visas granted - which is almost double that of 2019 when compared to equivalent routes. This growth can be attributed to the introduction of the ‘Skilled Worker’ visa in 2020.

This increase in work visas can partly be attributed to the requirement for EEA and Swiss nationals to apply for entry clearance visas as a result of Brexit. EEA and Swiss nationals have made up one in ten work visas granted in the latest year.

Visit LexisNexis for all you need to know about 'Skilled Workers' and other visas.

After a tough 2020, international students showed no signs of being put off by the pandemic - student visas skyrocketed in 2021.

The total number of student visas plummeted in 2020 - at 250,121 - with the pandemic causing widespread disruption to domestic and international students alike. However, in 2021 these numbers increased significantly, with 435,110 student visas being issued that year.

The latest figures show 486,868 sponsored study visas were granted for the year ending June 2022, a 71% increase from 2019.

Of these visas, 117,965 grants came from Indian nationals (+215% compared to 2019), while 115,056 visas were granted to Chinese nationals (4% lower than the number seen in 2019).

Non-Russell group universities now make up 56% of all confirmation for acceptance for studies (CAS) for student visa applications - the highest proportion since the sponsorship time series began in 2010.

Here's your go to guide to student visa eligibility

In 2021, 42,182 visas were issued for family visas - near on par with previous years, although markedly shy from 2019's 55,643.

When looking at the latest figures, there were 36,470 family-related visas granted in the year ending June 2022, 34% fewer than 2019. Almost three quarters (71%) of family-related visas granted in the year ending June 2022 were to partners, with the remainder being for children or other dependants.

However, when looking at the latest figures for all visas that require family sponsorship, the total number sits at 303,553 visas and permits granted for all family reasons (61% more than 2019). This is largely a result of the increase in dependants of people coming on work or study visas, and the dependants of the newly introduced British Nationals (Overseas) route.

Read family visa guidance, practice notes, news, precedents and Q&As here

Applications for British citizenship have been relatively steady for the last decade or so, particularly those from non-EU countries. In 2021 there were 179,968 applications for British citizenship - and for the year ending June 2022, there were 179,963 applications (3% more than in 2019).

In the build up to mid-2021, the applications by EU nationals increased noticeably, accounting for over a quarter (27%) of all citizenship applications in the latest year compared to 12% in 2016. This is likely a direct result of EU nationals looking to secure their place in the UK following the UK's exit from the EU.

There were 194,058 grants of British citizenship in the year ending June 2022, 22% more than in 2019.

The number of settlement visas being granted is also on the rise. In 2021, we saw 106,123 visas for settlement being granted - a stark rise from 2016 figures.

In 2021 there 58532 applications for asylum, and the UK offered asylum, humanitarian protection or alternative forms of leave and resettlement to 10,468 people.

In the year ending June 2022, there were 63,089 asylum applications (77% more than in 2019), and the UK offered 15,684 people asylum visas. This data does not include the people who have been resettled under the Afghan Citizens Resettlement Scheme or relocated under the Afghan Relocations and Assistance Policy.